A weekly index tracking real-time buyer commitment in six New Jersey commuter towns suggests the Maplewood housing market is running significantly hotter than conventional metrics indicate, with nearly twice as many properties under contract as actively available as of late June.
Mark Slade, who leads Mark Slade Homes with partner MaryCeu Nunes, developed the ‘hyper market index’ to measure current market conditions rather than relying on backward-looking data like absorption rate, which averages closed sales over six months. The index compares the number of properties under contract against the combined total of active listings, properties in attorney review, and coming-soon inventory. A reading above 1.0 signals a hyper market where buyer demand outstrips supply.
As of the week ending June 21, Maplewood’s index stood at 1.9, meaning there are nearly twice as many properties under contract as available for purchase. South Orange followed at 1.7, while Union, West Orange, and Livingston registered 1.3, 1.1, and 0.8, respectively. Slade views any reading above 1.0 as a hyper market, indicating significant imbalance favoring sellers.
The index’s divergence from standard measures is stark. Absorption rate, which includes December’s slow performance, would smooth out the current momentum. ‘The hyper market index shows where the market is at this moment, which is what actually matters when a seller is deciding whether to list this week or next month, or when a buyer is deciding how aggressively to offer,’ Slade said.
Zillow’s numbers tell a different story because the platform aggregates data from multiple sources, including private and exclusive listings not on the Garden State MLS, the primary system for agents in the corridor. Slade pulls his data directly from the Garden State MLS, making it more relevant for buyers and sellers in Maplewood and South Orange. ‘The discrepancy isn’t a matter of one being more sophisticated than the other – it’s a matter of what each is actually counting,’ he noted.
Percent-over-asking figures reinforce the index’s findings. Maplewood’s average sale price of $1,323,000 represents a roughly $220,000 increase from year-end 2025, with properties selling at 16.1% over asking. South Orange’s average price of $1,221,000 reflects 15.5% over asking, up from 10.5% at year-end. Livingston, the outlier, has the second-highest average price at $1,350,000 but only 2.9% over asking and a hyper market ratio of 0.8.
For buyers still waiting, Slade’s data suggests the cost of deferring a purchase compounds quickly. In Maplewood, where demand runs at nearly twice the available supply, ‘buyers who sit out are not preserving optionality – they are watching the entry point move further away,’ he said. The buyer resources page at Mark Slade Homes offers guidance on competitive offers, appraisal waiver programs, and market-specific strategies.
This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice.
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