Dallas-based Stonegate Capital Partners has issued an update on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), noting that the company’s second-quarter 2026 results made its operating inflection visible. The report highlights that despite a revenue shortfall, underlying performance improved significantly, driven by stronger ethanol margins, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and the recognition of 45Z tax credits.
For the quarter, Aemetis reported revenue of $62.7 million, up 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially, but below the consensus estimate of $68.6 million. However, the company swung to a gross profit of $13.5 million from a loss of $3.4 million in the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a sharp improvement from negative $5.8 million in the same quarter last year. Stonegate’s normalized EPS estimate of negative $0.11 also beat the consensus estimate of negative $0.24.
The revenue miss was largely attributed to timing of tenders from India’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMC), which impacted the company’s India segment. Excluding that, both California-based businesses—renewable fuels and RNG—delivered higher volumes and stronger gross profit, along with increased environmental-credit contribution.
Dairy RNG remains the clearest growth driver, according to the report. Sales volume increased 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu, and segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Aemetis now has seven approved LCFS pathways with an average carbon intensity (CI) of negative 380, which are improving credit economics. Six additional pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes ethanol plant’s earnings bridge continues to advance. The mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system is targeted for operation by year-end 2026, and management estimates approximately $32 million in annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027.
However, Stonegate cautions that the balance sheet remains the primary constraint on the thesis. Aemetis had only $1.0 million in unrestricted cash and $415.9 million in total debt. Refinancing progress is crucial to translating operating improvements into durable free cash flow. The company’s ability to address its capital structure will be key to unlocking shareholder value, as operational strides alone may not suffice to alleviate liquidity concerns.
The update from Stonegate underscores that while Aemetis is making operational headway, financial stability remains a critical hurdle. Investors will be watching for refinancing milestones and continued execution in RNG and ethanol operations.
