The latest episode of the investing podcast DH Unplugged pulls no punches, labeling a series of recent financial maneuvers as the ‘five dumbest moves’ shaking markets. Hosts Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak, in Episode 815 titled ‘Stupid Does Stupid,’ offer a sharp critique of Treasury policy, trade decisions, and market trends that they argue are based on flawed logic.
At the top of their list is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded long-bond buybacks, which the hosts have dubbed ‘Bessent’s Big Bond Blunder.’ They question the effectiveness of the program, which hints at increasing the monthly pace of $4 billion. Horowitz dismisses the notion that this constitutes quantitative easing, stating, ‘There is no quantitative easing going on. The dollar is down, but not that much. The fact is that everybody just wants to buy it. This is an excuse.’ Dvorak adds a counterpoint, noting that if retail investors believe the debasement narrative, then the messaging is working, even if interest rates quickly snapped back after Bessent’s comments.
The hosts also point to unusual inflows into TLT (the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) on August 18, the day before the announcement, calling it ‘information leakage’ rather than luck.
Another target is the Trump administration’s tariff cut on imported beef. The hosts question who actually bears the cost of tariffs, suggesting that the move may have unintended consequences. They also highlight new Iran sanctions targeting roughly 60 individuals, companies, and vessels under ‘Operation Economic Outcast,’ which could have ripple effects on oil markets.
Bitcoin’s surge past $80,000 and gold’s rally on a softer dollar are also scrutinized. The hosts argue that the dollar’s decline is not as significant as portrayed, and that investors are buying into a narrative that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.
Walmart’s consumer warning, with U.S. comparable sales up just 2.6% against roughly 3% inflation, is taken seriously by Dvorak, who draws on his consulting work with Walmart’s data science team. He argues that the retailer’s predictive models make its caution credible, not corporate spin. He also notes Costco’s earlier warning about shoppers swapping chicken for tuna as a recession tell.
Ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings report and the Jackson Hole symposium, the hosts spotlight Kingslide Works, a Taiwanese maker of roughly 70% of data center rack slides, which is up about 400% in a year. They see this as an early indicator for the upcoming Ultra Rubin chip cycle.
The episode also delves into Venezuelan oil refining bottlenecks, strategic petroleum reserves near 1983 levels, salt-cavern integrity risks in Texas and Louisiana, and China’s 90% share of Iranian oil imports.
DH Unplugged is a weekly investing and markets podcast that blends Fed watching, earnings analysis, commodities, tech, and cultural riffs in a skeptical and humorous style. Episode 815 is available now on DH Unplugged and major podcast platforms.
