When AI researcher Jacob Coxon left Anthropic after just four months, he didn’t go quietly. In a post on X, he warned that many people developing AI genuinely believe the technology could pose an existential threat to humanity before the decade ends. Evan Hubinger, a senior Anthropic researcher, echoed part of that concern, putting the possibility of such an outcome within the next 10 years at over 10%. Those comments have intensified calls for greater oversight of AI development and renewed debate over how much control humans should retain as systems become more capable.
But what could an AI-driven catastrophe actually look like? Most theories focus on hypothetical super-intelligent systems that outperform humans across a wide range of tasks. Here are five broad possibilities, moving from the most uncertain to more concrete scenarios.
First, we may not be able to predict it. One argument is that humans may struggle to anticipate the actions of a machine that is substantially smarter than its creators. Today’s AI systems can outperform people in particular areas, but they remain far from universally superior. Recent progress in advanced mathematics, however, suggests that the gap may be narrowing in some fields.
Second, the paperclip problem. Philosopher Nick Bostrom famously described a machine programmed to maximize paperclip production. If given overwhelming capabilities and poorly designed instructions, such a system could theoretically treat everything, including people and natural resources, as material for achieving its objective. The machine would not need to be hostile. It would simply pursue its assigned target without considering consequences that humans regard as important. However, intelligence does not automatically provide unlimited power. Real-world obstacles, laws, institutions, and public resistance could prevent an advanced system from carrying out such an extreme plan.
Third, biological threats. Another concern involves AI being used to develop dangerous biological agents. Forecasting exercises such as AI 2027 have included catastrophic pandemics among possible outcomes. Recent research has also demonstrated how AI models can assist with designing genetic sequences, raising questions about how easily advanced technology could lower barriers to biological experimentation. Yet eliminating humanity with a pathogen would be extremely difficult. A disease must spread efficiently to reach large populations, while highly lethal infections can face biological limits that restrict transmission. History shows that even devastating pandemics have not wiped out the human species.
Fourth, nuclear conflict. AI could also increase nuclear risks if it were able to interfere with military systems or generate misleading information during a crisis. Cyberattacks have already demonstrated that supposedly isolated infrastructure can be vulnerable. The Stuxnet attack on Iranian nuclear facilities showed how malicious software could disrupt sensitive equipment. Although global nuclear arsenals have declined from their Cold War peak, existing weapons could still cause enormous casualties and potentially trigger widespread famine through climate effects associated with a nuclear winter.
Fifth, human actions. The final scenario does not require machines to directly attack humanity. AI could instead contribute to social instability through widespread unemployment, misinformation, political division, and increasingly convincing artificial relationships. If those pressures seriously weakened institutions and communities, the resulting damage could become difficult to contain.
These possibilities illustrate genuine areas of concern, but they remain hypothetical to varying degrees. The challenge is to prepare for credible risks without treating every worst-case scenario as inevitable. The risks shouldn’t also distract humanity from the immense benefits that AI is helping lots of industries and businesses like Datavault Inc. (NASDAQ: DVLT) to actualize as they serve their niche of clients.
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