The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has substantially revised upward its forecast for Hong Kong’s merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42%-47%, following significantly stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies. The upgrade, announced on September 29, 2026, marks a major reassessment of the territory’s trade outlook and underscores how AI infrastructure spending is reshaping one of Asia’s key export economies.
The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) shows exporter sentiment remains broadly positive despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Current Performance Index stood at 51.8, while the Expectation Index registered 51.3, both above the neutral 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Detailed findings are available in the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 3Q26.
AI-driven electronics have exceeded expectations. HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang said the strong growth recorded this year was driven primarily by the rapid acceleration of global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure. Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong’s exports.
Electronics remained the dominant growth engine, accounting for approximately 80% of Hong Kong’s total exports in the first eight months of 2026. Exports of electronics rose 52.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall export growth. Major markets included the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and the US, reflecting strong demand across global technology supply chains, particularly for items related to AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data centres and next-generation digital technologies.
The strength has not been confined to a narrow range of technology items. HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu said exports of a broad range of conventional electronic parts and components have continued to perform strongly, with regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN economies remaining highly active. Export performance across many traditional industries has also remained broadly stable, reflecting continued overseas demand and resilient consumption in major markets.
Recent developments in US trade policy have introduced additional uncertainty. In July, the United States imposed an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff on imports from a number of trading partners, including the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong. Nevertheless, Hong Kong’s exports to the United States remained remarkably resilient, rising 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Pang said the direct impact is expected to be limited because a substantial share of US-bound exports consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in technology and electronics. He also cited the September Xi-Trump meeting, the extension of the trade truce until January 2027 and the US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement as factors providing a welcome period of stability.
Beyond the cyclical upswing, HKTDC research points to a structural transformation in Hong Kong’s trade profile, with exports increasingly concentrated in high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer parts and advanced telecommunications equipment. The shift has increased reliance on air freight, strengthening Hong Kong’s position as a leading high-value international trade and logistics hub, as outlined in the report on Hong Kong’s Evolution into a High Value-Added Trade Hub. Wing Chu said the city is increasingly handling products that are compact in size but exceptionally high in value.
The HKTDC expects exports to maintain solid momentum through the remainder of 2026, though businesses continue to face geopolitical tensions, volatility in energy and commodity markets, and rising protectionist measures. Sectors such as clothing, watches and clocks, and jewellery have continued to deliver stable performance. The full outlook is detailed in the 2026 export forecast, and further market intelligence is available on the HKTDC Research website. The announcement was first distributed via NEWMEDIAWIRE, and a photo is available for download at https://bit.ly/4rD4M8f.
