BHP Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant, speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, said the international copper market could enter a sustained supply deficit from 2028. Closing that gap would require an increase in annual supply by the mid-2030s equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines the size of Escondida, the Chilean operation that is the world’s largest copper producer.
The warning matters because copper is a key input for power grids, electric vehicles and data centers, and a prolonged shortfall would tighten availability of the metal at a time when demand is broadening. Pant said declining production from existing deposits is already pressuring supply, making new mine development necessary to maintain output even before future demand growth is considered. Traditional sources of consumption such as population growth, industrialization and urbanization are being joined by digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment and the shift to cleaner energy. Projections cited by Pant show annual global copper demand rising above 50 million metric tons by 2050, with data centers alone accounting for roughly 3 million metric tons per year.
Pant distinguished the anticipated long-term gap from immediate shortages, noting that temporary imbalances can emerge when miners miss production targets. Recent disruptions and operational difficulties have weighed on output, and copper concentrate availability has become increasingly constrained. The International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth this year to 1.3%, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China and Chile, though it expects growth above 3% in 2027.
BHP, the world’s largest copper producer, is positioning itself for the shift. Copper accounted for more than half of its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year. The company expects internally developed projects to lift attributable copper output to about 2 million metric tons by 2035, targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between 2026/27 and 2034/35.
Planned initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, plus development of the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S. If the structural shortage materializes, entities such as Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from added demand and higher prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production. The outlook was distributed through MiningNewsWire.
