A new poll from East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research shows former Republican Senator Darline Graham leading Democratic challenger Annie Andrews by four percentage points in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, 51% to 47% among likely voters. The survey, conducted October 19–24, included 2% support for an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate and carries a credibility interval of ±3.7 percentage points, comparable to a margin of error.
The findings, released Thursday, underscore the central role economic concerns are playing in the contest. According to the poll, 54% of likely voters identified the economy, including the cost of living, as their top issue. Border security and immigration ranked second at 14%. The results suggest that Graham’s message is resonating with a electorate focused on pocketbook issues, even as Andrews holds an edge among independents.
Andrews leads among independent voters 53% to 43%, according to the poll. However, Graham’s overwhelming 93% to 6% advantage among Republicans is large enough to give her a slight lead overall. The partisan gap highlights the polarized nature of the race and the importance of base turnout in a state that has leaned Republican in recent federal elections.
The poll was conducted by the ECU Center for Survey Research, which conducts nonpartisan public opinion polling on elections, politics, and public policy issues in North Carolina and across the nation. The full announcement, including downloadable images and bios, is available click here. The poll was distributed by Reportable, Inc.
With the election approaching, the four-point margin is within the poll’s credibility interval, meaning the race could tighten. Still, the results offer a snapshot of a contest where economic anxieties are paramount and where Graham’s strong Republican support offsets Andrews’ appeal to independents. The poll’s credibility interval of ±3.7 percentage points means Graham’s lead could be as small as less than one point or as large as nearly eight points, leaving room for shifts as the campaign continues.
For observers of South Carolina politics, the ECU poll provides an early indication of how voters are weighing the candidates. The emphasis on the economy and the split among independents versus party loyalties will likely shape the final weeks of the campaign. The Center for Survey Research’s nonpartisan approach adds credibility to the findings, which are based on a survey of likely voters during a critical period.
